Pemodelan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Stevenson-Porter pada Nilai Peramalan Ekspor Non-Migas di Indonesia
Abstract
Abstract. Forecasting is the science of predicting events in the future, There are several kinds of methods used to project forecasting, since Zadeh's pioneering work in 1965, Fuzzy set theory has been applied to various fields. including Fuzzy Time Series, Fuzzy Time Series methods have been proven to improve classical forecasting methods such as handling data fluctuations, inappropriate environments, subjectivity uncertainty in data. By having the privilege of not requiring the fulfillment of special assumptions. This method was developed by Meredith Stevenson and John E. Porter. This research uses the "Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm Using Percentage Change as the Universe of Discourse" forecasting method proposed by Stevenson and Porter. The data component required for research using this method is trend data. In its application, research using Fuzzy Time Series Stevenson Porter forecasting results in a forecasting value of 276,193.25 million US dollars with the calculation of the error value using MAPE getting a result of 36.17% for the Stevenson Porter fuzzy time series method in modeling Indonesia's non-oil and gas export forecasting.
Abstrak. Permalan (forecasting) adalah ilmu pengetahuan dalam memprediksi peristiwa pada masa yang akan dating, Terdapat beberapa macam metode yang digunakan untuk memproyeksikan peramalan, sejak karya perintis Zadeh pada tahun 1965, teori himpunan Fuzzy telah diterapkan kedalam berbagai bidang. diantaranya Fuzzy Time Series, metode Fuzzy Time Series telah terbukti dapat memperbaiki metode peramalan klasik seperti menangani fluktuasi data, lingkungan yang tidak tepat, ketidakpastian subjektivitas dalam data. Dengan memiliki keistimewaan tidak memutuhkan pemenuhan asumsi khusus. Metode ini salah satunya dikembangkan Meredith Stevenson dan John E.Porter. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode peramalan Algoritma “Fuzzy Time Series Menggunakan Perubahan Persentase Sebagai Universe of Discourse” yang diusulkan oleh Stevenson dan Porter. Komponen data yang diperlukan untuk penelitian menggunakan metode ini berupa data yang bersifat trend. Pada penerapannya penelitian menggunakan peramalan Fuzzy Time Series Stevenson Porter ini mendapatkan hasil nilai peramalan sebesar 276.193,25 juta US$ dengan perhitungan nilai error menggunakan MAPE mendapatkan hasil sebesar 36,17% untuk metode fuzzy time series Stevenson Porter pada pemodelan peramalan ekspor nonmigas Indonesia.
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