Premi Asuransi Gempa Bumi Pulau Lombok Menggunakan Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis dan Korelasi MMI-PGA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29313/bcss.v5i2.20877Keywords:
Premi Asuransi Gempa, PSHA, Korelasi MMI-PGAAbstract
Abstract. Indonesia is a seismically active country due to its location at the convergence of three major tectonic plates and the Pacific Ring of Fire. Lombok Island is particularly prone to earthquakes, with a history of events causing significant damage to infrastructure and communities. This study aims to estimate earthquake insurance premiums in Lombok using a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) approach. Earthquake data were declustered and shown to follow a Poisson distribution. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values from PSHA were converted to Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) using Pailoplee’s (2012) logarithmic correlation: log10(PGA)=0.2526xMMI-3.1006. The MMI values were applied in a normal-binomial model to estimate seismic hazard, while the Damage Probability Matrix (DPM) was used to calculate the Expected Annual Damage Ratio (EADR). Results showed an EADR of 1.0907% per year, within the premium limits set by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). The estimated Pure Risk Premium (PRP) was IDR 10,907,000 per year for a building insured at IDR 1,000,000,000. After adding a loading factor, the Total Premium (TP) reached IDR 18,178,333.33. This probabilistic approach offers a realistic basis for earthquake insurance pricing and risk management in Lombok.
Abstrak. Indonesia merupakan negara dengan aktivitas seismik tinggi karena berada di pertemuan tiga lempeng tektonik utama dan Cincin Api Pasifik. Pulau Lombok dikenal sebagai wilayah aktif secara seismik, dengan catatan sejarah gempa bumi yang berdampak besar terhadap infrastruktur dan kehidupan masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi tarif premi asuransi gempa bumi di Pulau Lombok berdasarkan pendekatan Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Data gempa dianalisis setelah proses declustering dan terbukti mengikuti distribusi Poisson. Nilai percepatan tanah maksimum (PGA) hasil PSHA dikonversi ke intensitas Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) menggunakan korelasi logaritmik dari Pailoplee (2012): log10(PGA)=0,2526xMMI-3,1006. Nilai MMI yang diperoleh digunakan dalam model normal-binomial untuk menghitung Seismic Hazard, dan Damage Probability Matrix (DPM) digunakan untuk menentukan Expected Annual Damage Ratio(EADR). Hasil analisis menunjukkan EADR sebesar 1,0907% per tahun, masih sesuai batas premi yang ditetapkan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Estimasi Pure Risk Premium (PRP) adalah Rp10.907.000 per tahun untuk nilai pertanggungan bangunan sebesar Rp1.000.000.000. Setelah penambahan loading factor, diperoleh Total Premium (TP) sebesar Rp18.178.333,33. Pendekatan probabilistik ini menunjukkan bahwa PSHA dan korelasi MMI–PGA dapat menjadi dasar realistis dan komprehensif dalam perhitungan premi asuransi gempa, serta mendukung pengelolaan risiko kebencanaan di Pulau Lombok.
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