Premi Asuransi Gempa Bumi di Zona Seismic Gap Selatan Jawa Bagian Barat Tahun 1958-2022
Abstract
Abstract. Seismic gaps are areas of potential for large earthquakes. Indonesia is tectonically unstable and is the most active continental margin in the world and is included in seismically active regions. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) records Indonesia as the country with the most earthquakes in the world (USGS, 2022). Earthquakes can cause many losses such as casualties, traumatic effects experienced by victims after an earthquake, as well as property losses, damage to residential buildings, public facilities, office buildings or other infrastructure. This study aims to examine the Seismic Gap in Indonesia in the southern zone of western Java and calculate insurance premiums to determine the amount of losses incurred in the event of an earthquake. The results showed that from 20 mainshock earthquake events there were 5 intensity scales, namely scales 12 to 16, which had impacts such as cracked roads and cracked walls, and the earthquake hazard value or the largest earthquake exceedance level was on scale 16. 3. The total premium rate that must be paid by the customer as the insured party to the insurance company every year is at Rp87,975,000 to Rp437,362,500. Future research is expected to have more linear data. In this study, it is expected that future research can use other approaches in calculating the possibility of the amount of insurance premiums caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes.
Abstrak. Seismic gap merupakan daerah berpotensi terjadinya gempa bumi besar. Indonesia secara tektonik bersifat labil dan merupakan kawasan pinggir benua yang paling aktif di dunia dan termasuk dalam daerah seismik aktif. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) mencatat Indonesia sebagai negara dengan gempa bumi terbanyak di dunia (USGS, 2022). Gempa bumi dapat menimbulkan banyak kerugian seperti korban jiwa, efek traumatik yang dialami korban pasca gempa, serta kerugian harta benda, kerusakan bangunan tempat tinggal, fasilitas-fasilitas umum, gedung perkantoran atau infrastruktur lainnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti Seismic Gap di Indonesia pada zona selatan jawa bagian barat dan menghitung premi asuransi untuk mengetahui besar kerugian yang timbul jika terjadi gempa bumi. Hasil penilitian menunjukkan dari 20 kejadian gempa bumi mainshock terdapat 5 skala intensitas yaitu skala 12 sampai 16 yang dampaknya seperti jalanan retak dan tembok retak, dan nilai bahaya gempa atau tingkat pelampauan gempa bumi terbesar ada di skala 16. 3. Tarif total premi yang harus dibayarkan oleh nasabah sebagai pihak tertanggung kepada pihak asuransi setiap tahunnya berada di angka Rp87.975.000 sampai dengan Rp437.362.500. Penelitian selanjutnya diharapkan memiliki data yang lebih linear. Dalam penelitian ini diharapkan untuk penelitian selanjutnya dapat menggunakan pendekatan lain dalam menghitung kemungkinan besaran premi asuransi yang diakibatkan oleh terjadinya bencana alam seperti gempa bumi.
References
Aki, K. (1965). Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N(>=m)= a-bm and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Tokyo Univ., 43, 237–239.
Aykut, D. (2006). Estimation Of Earthquake Insurance Premium Rates Based On Stochastic Methods. In Middle East Technical University. Middle East Technical University.
Baker, J. W., Bradley, B. A., & Stafford, P. J. (2021). Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis. In Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/c2013-0-11297-4
Gürpinar, A., & Yucemen, M. S. (1980). An obligatory earthquake insurance model for Turkey, In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Engineering for Protection from Natural Disasters. 895–906.
Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1942). Earthquake magnitude, intensity, energy, and acceleration. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 32(3), 163–191.
Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1944). Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34(4), 185–188.
Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1945). Frequency of earthquakes in California. Nature, 156(3960), 371. https://doi.org/10.1038/156371a0
Pailoplee, S., & Palasri, C. (2014). CU-PSHA: A MATLAB software for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, 8(4). https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793431114500080
Widiyantoro, S., Gunawan, E., Muhari, A., Rawlinson, N., Mori, J., Hanifa, N. R., Susilo, S., Supendi, P., Shiddiqi, H. A., Nugraha, A. D., & Putra, H. E. (2020). Implications for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from seismic gaps south of Java Indonesia. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72142-z
Yucemen, M. S. (2006). Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance rates for Turkey. Natural Hazards, 35(2), 291–313. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-6485-8
Firdayanti, E., 1, D., & Hajarisman, N. (2023). Penanganan Data Hilang pada Pemodelan Persamaan Terstruktur melalui Metode Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML). 1(1), 11–18. https://doi.org/10.29313/datamath.v1i1.10
Wildan, & Karyana, Y. (2021). Evaluasi Kesalahan Proyeksi Penduduk Tahun 2020 untuk Memproyeksikan Penduduk Tahun 2025 Provinsi Jawa Barat. Jurnal Riset Statistika, 1(2), 92–98. https://doi.org/10.29313/jrs.v1i2.407
Zakiyatis Salmaini, & Suliadi. (2021). SPC (Statistical Process Control) Fase II Diagram Kendali Cusum (Cumulative Sum) Nonparametrik Berdasarkan Statistik Mann-Whitney Pada Data Harga Saham PT NO. Jurnal Riset Statistika, 1(2), 83–91. https://doi.org/10.29313/jrs.v1i2.404
