Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Properti dan Real Estate Yang Tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Januari 2015 – Desember 2019

Abstract

Abstract. The Property and Real Estate sector has an important role for the economy, especially the financial sector. Macroeconomic movements that continue to increase affect property prices to continue to increase. This is a problem for companies in their ability to pay production costs and attract investors to invest their capital. The purpose of this study is to estimate the factors that affect the Property and Real Estate Sector Stock Price Index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period January 2015 – December 2019. The method used in this research is quantitative descriptive analysis and monthly time series data regression analysis from January 2015-December 2019. Data obtained from BPS publications and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The independent variables include inflation, interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate. and the dependent variable is the stock price index of the property and real estate sectors. The estimation model uses OLS. The results showed that the variables of inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate had a significant influence. If it is seen from the probability value of inflation, and the rupiah exchange rate is significant at the alpha 5% level, while interest rates are significant at the alpha 10% level. From the value of R2, the result is 15.17 percent, meaning that the variation of Inflation, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on the Stock Price Index of the Property and Real Estate sectors is 10% while the rest is influenced by variables not included in the study. That is, in further research, it is necessary to appoint other variables that have a significant influence on the property and real estate stock price index, such as the management error factor, the results of an independent company's assessment of the company's performance.

Abstrak. Sektor Properti dan Real Estate memiliki peranan penting bagi perekonomian khususnya sektor keuangan. Pergerakan makroekonomi yang terus meningkat mempengaruhi harga properti terus mengalami kenaikan. Hal ini menjadi persoalan bagi perusahaan dalam kemampuan membayar biaya produksi dan daya tarik investor untuk menanamkan modalnya. Tujuan penelitian untuk mengestimasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Properti dan Real Estate yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode Januari 2015– Desember 2019. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini analisis deskriptif kuantitatif dan analisis regresi menggunakan data time series bulanan dari bulan Januari 2015-Desember 2019. Data diperoleh dari Publikasi Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik dan Bursa Efek Indonesia. Variabel independen meliputi inflasi, suku bunga dan nilai tukar rupiah serta variabel dependennya yaitu indeks harga saham sektor properti dan real estate. Model estimasi menggunakan OLS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan variabel inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar rupiah memiliki pengaruh signifikan. Jika dilihat dari nilai probabilitasnya inflasi, dan nilai tukar rupiah signifikan pada tingkat alfa 5 %, sedangkan suku bunga signifikan pada tingkat alfa 10 %. Dari besaran nilai R2 diperoleh hasil sebesar 10,62 persen yang bermakna variasi Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Properti dan Real Estate sebesar 10,62%, sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain yang tidak dimasukkan dalam penelitian ini. Artinya, dalam penelitian selanjutnya maka perlu dipilih variabel lain yang memiliki pengaruh lebih signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham properti dan real estate seperti faktor kesalahan manajemen, hasil penilaian perusahaan independen terhadap kinerja perusahaan serta kinerja perusahaan.