Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing, Inflasi dan Trade Openness terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan Government Effectiveness sebagai Variabel Moderasi: Studi pada Negara Mayoritas Muslim Asean 2010-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29313/bcses.v6i2.24303Keywords:
Penanaman Modal Asing, Inflasi, Trade Openness, Pertumbuhan EkonomiAbstract
Abstract. Economic growth in Muslim-majority ASEAN countries shows varying performance despite their relatively similar regional characteristics. This condition highlights the importance of examining macroeconomic factors and government governance quality that influence economic growth. This study aims to analyze the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), inflation, and trade openness on economic growth and to examine the role of government effectiveness as a moderating variable in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei Darussalam during 2010–2024. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary panel data consisting of 45 observations obtained from the World Bank, UNCTAD, and IMF. The data were analyzed using panel data regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with EViews. The results show that FDI, inflation, and trade openness have positive and significant effects on economic growth, while government effectiveness has a negative and significant effect. Simultaneously, all variables significantly affect economic growth, with the model explaining 42.85% of its variation. Government effectiveness significantly moderates only the effect of FDI on economic growth, while its moderating effects on inflation and trade openness are insignificant. The robustness tests indicate that trade openness is the most consistent determinant of economic growth. Governments are encouraged to strengthen the investment climate, improve trade competitiveness, maintain price stability, and enhance governance quality.
Abstrak. Pertumbuhan ekonomi negara mayoritas Muslim ASEAN menunjukkan perbedaan kinerja meskipun memiliki karakteristik kawasan yang relatif serupa. Kondisi tersebut mendorong pentingnya analisis terhadap faktor makroekonomi dan kualitas tata kelola pemerintahan yang memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), inflasi, dan trade openness terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi serta menguji peran government effectiveness sebagai variabel moderasi pada Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Brunei Darussalam selama periode 2010–2024. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berbentuk data panel sebanyak 45 observasi yang bersumber dari World Bank, UNCTAD, dan IMF. Data dianalisis menggunakan regresi data panel dan Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) menggunakan EViews. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PMA, inflasi, dan trade openness berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan government effectiveness berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Secara simultan, seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan dengan kemampuan model menjelaskan 42,85% variasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Government effectiveness hanya terbukti memoderasi pengaruh PMA, sedangkan pengaruh moderasi terhadap inflasi dan trade openness tidak signifikan. Uji robustness menunjukkan trade openness sebagai determinan yang paling konsisten. Pemerintah disarankan memperkuat iklim investasi, meningkatkan daya saing perdagangan, menjaga stabilitas harga, dan memperbaiki kualitas tata kelola pemerintahan.
References
Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis Of Panel Data.
Borensztein, E., Gregorio, J. De, & Lee, J. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic. 45, 115–135.
David Ricardo. (2001). On The Principles Of Political Economy And Taxation (Vol. 1817).
Douglass C. North Till’. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change And Economic Performance.
Dunning, J. H. (1980). Toward An Eclectic Theory Of International Production : Some Empirical Tests Author ( S ): John H . Dunning Source : Journal Of International Business Studies , Spring - Summer , 1980 , Vol . 11 , No . Published By : Published By : Palgrave Macmillan Jour. 11(1), 9–31.
Kaufmann, D. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators Methodology And Analytical Issues. September.
Mankiw, N. G. (2016). Macroeconomics.
Mapendo, J. J., Senadjki, A., & Choong, Y. O. (2026). Stock Market Development And Foreign International Direct Investment : The Moderating Role Of Government Effectiveness. 21(1), 47–66. Https://Doi.Org/10.1108/Ijoem-04-2024-0597
Muhammad Kurniawan, Komala Sari, Z. R. U. (2023). Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi), Keterbukaan Perdagangan Dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di 5 Negara Asean Pada Tahun 2014 – 2023 Dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Islam Muhammad. 1–20.
Nguyen, B. X. (2025). Growth Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment In Asean Economies : Does Institutional Quality Matter ? 16(1), 217–238.
Ozili, P. K. (N.D.). The Acceptable R-Square In Empirical Modelling For Social Science Research. January 2023, 1–9.
Prof. Dr.H. Imam Ghozali, M.Com, A. (N.D.). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate Dengan Program Ibm Spss 19.
Romer, P. M., & Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. 98(5).
Setiawan, B., & Darmawan, A. (2023). Identify The Effect Of Trade Openness , Government Spending And Labor Force On Economic Growth In Asean Countries. 11(01), 46–55. Https://Doi.Org/10.33019/Equity.V11i1
Simanungkalit, E. F. B. (2020). Simanungkalit / Journal Of Management (Sme’s) Vol. 13, No.3, 2020, P327-340. 13(3), 327–340.
Stephen T. Ziliak. (2004). The Standard Error Of Regressions In The American Economic Review. 1(2), 331–358.
Tyo, G. Y. (2024). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. 3, 75–83.
Ullayatalatof, Z., & Retno Febriyastuti Widyawati 2. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Korupsi , Keterbukaan Perdagangan , Pengeluaran Konsumsi Akhir Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Abstrak Pendahuluan. 8(3), 1442–1454.
Zada, M. (2025). The Moderating Role Of Government Effectiveness On The Relationship Between Trade Openness , Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth With Environmental Degradation In South Asia. 0–32.
